As we approach the 2018 midterm elections, it is that time of year to go out a bit on a limb and share with you my predictions for the upcoming election results and the impact of those results on future elections. Here goes:
- The 2018 midterm elections will result in the House of Representatives being returned to Democrat control.
Now, of course, that prediction is not too risky since most political pundits are predicting the same thing. However, I will go one step further. I also predict that the Senate will be turned over to the Democrats too.
Why, you ask? Because the electorate, specifically those voters who didn’t see a significant enough threat to Democracy to motivate them to vote in 2016 will now try to make amends for the disaster in the White House their apoplexy caused. Voters who did not come out to vote in 2016 will recognize the need for this White House to be checked by a Congress that recognizes its role in the separation of powers and the checks and balances that the founding fathers envisioned in designing the federal government and the crafting of the Constitution.
The fact there is more Democratic Senate seats up for grabs than Republican seats won’t be a determinative factor. What will be is the need to see a federal government that actually places the rule of law above the rule of an autocrat and that can only be accomplished with a fully Democratic Congress since the current fully Republican Congress has so manifestly abrogated that responsibility.
- Donald J. Trump will not, I repeat, not run for re-election in 2020.
Even if he is not impeached, and the odds of him being impeached and then removed from office is a bit of a long shot, he will still not run for re-election in 2020.
Granted, the likelihood of impeachment and removal from office is not likely. It took a bi-partisan effort in 1974 to convince Richard Nixon to leave the presidency. The 2018 version of Congressional Republicans are a much different breed from their counterparts in 1974. Country above party? Not with the current crop of Republican lawmakers, or is it lawbreakers?
Why, then, do I predict Trump stepping down or, at least, not running for re-election? Because he is addicted to television coverage, poll numbers, and fears, more than anything else in life, going out as a, pardon the expression, LOSER!
His unfavorability rating is at an historic 60 percent and his current favorability rating is at a likewise historic 36 percent. Would there really be any surprise if he simply claims he did more in four years than any predecessor was able to accomplish in eight years and it is now time to turn the White House over to the sycophant of all sycophants, Mike Pence. That he, Trump, would like to return to a well-deserved previous lifestyle filled with unending rounds of golf – all right, maybe return isn’t the correct term; maybe continue is the right word. Or that he needs to return to running his multi-billion dollar empire because his kids are running it to the ground.
Whatever lame excuse he chooses, the reason will be to not risk losing re-election. Remember, he never really expected to win or wanted the job. He certainly wanted to win the election but no way ever wanted to take on the responsibility of governing. He already had an excuse for losing: the election was rigged.
Well, that may have turned out to be true, but not in the way Trump would have portrayed it. He would have been more than happy to move on to setting up Trump TV, which is what he was already preparing to do with a 2016 loss. Well, better late than never and 2020 will not be too soon. Besides, utilizing TV for personal benefit is one skill that even I have to admit he excels at.
- If nothing else but a House of Representatives takeover by the Democrats comes to pass, then, at the very least, we will see committee investigations galore that will put such pressure on Mr. Fragile Ego that he will not be able to withstand the pressure.
Further, if it does become clear that he is a liability to the election of other Republicans as a result of either the 2018 midterm election results or the uncovering of extensive corruption violations via the Mueller investigation and the renewed House investigations, you can expect a mass exodus of Republican support for the Trumpster. He will still try to hang on rather than go out under his own concocted excuse, but it will be quite difficult to hang on by his fingertips when the hands are so small to begin with.
- If, by chance, he does attempt to run in 2020, he will be primaried. Whether it is by John Kasich, Bob Corker, Jeff Flake or, how about this one, Jeff Sessions, or, maybe even Mike Pence if he smells even the hint of vulnerability.
Both conservatives and evangelicals will have an opportunity to support a conservative and a candidate who does represent the values that both groups long ago abandoned when they adopted Trump as their own. Every single one of their values (as warped as those two groups are) were openly disregarded by Trump morally, ethically and economically.
Now that should be quite an interesting circus to watch as the blatant hypocrisy of those two groups come back to haunt them.